Momentum Shift Before the Election

Recent polls show Republicans making gains. The most recent PEW poll shows likely voters favoring Democrats 47% to 43%, a marked narrowing from recent weeks. Two weeks ago, that gap was 51% to 40%.

Here are some of the most recent generic poll results: Generic Congressional Vote

Poll - Date - Republican - Democrat - Spread

RCP Average
11/01 - 11/05 42.0% 51.6% 9.6%

USA Today/Gallup
11/02 - 11/05 44% 51% 7%

Pew Research
11/01 - 11/04 43% 47% 4%

ABC News/Wash Post
11/01 - 11/04 45% 51% 6%

Newsweek
11/02 - 11/03 38% 54% 16%

Time
11/01 - 11/03 40% 55% 15%

The PEW results

Summary of Findings: Republicans Cut Democratic Lead in Campaign's Final Days: Democrats Hold 47%-43% Lead Among Likely Voters, Released: November 5, 2006.

A nationwide Pew Research Center survey finds voting intentions shifting in the direction of Republican congressional candidates in the final days of the 2006 midterm campaign. The new survey finds a growing percentage of likely voters saying they will vote for GOP candidates. However, the Democrats still hold a 48% to 40% lead among registered voters, and a modest lead of 47%-43% among likely voters.

The narrowing of the Democratic lead raises questions about whether the party will win a large enough share of the popular vote to recapture control of the House of Representatives. The relationship between a party's share of the popular vote and the number of seats it wins is less certain than it once was, in large part because of the increasing prevalence of safe seat redistricting. As a result, forecasting seat gains from national surveys has become more difficult.

The survey suggests that the judgment of undecided voters will be crucial to the outcome of many congressional races this year. As many as 19% of voters now only lean to a candidate or are flatly undecided. The Democrats hold a 44% to 35% lead among committed voters. But the race is more even among voters who are less strongly committed to a candidate; those who only lean to a candidate divide almost evenly between Republicans and Democrats (5% lean Republican/4% lean Democrat).

Republican gains in the new poll reflect a number of late-breaking trends. First, Republicans have become more engaged and enthused in the election than they had been in September and October. While Democrats continue to express greater enthusiasm about voting than do Republicans, as many Republican voters (64%) as Democratic voters (62%) now say they are giving quite a lot of thought to the election. About a month ago, Democratic voters were considerably more likely than GOP voters to say they were giving a lot of thought to the election (by 59%-50%). As a result, Republicans now register a greater likelihood of voting than do Democrats, as is typical in mid-term elections.

The Republicans also have made major gains, in a relatively short time period, among independent voters. Since early this year, the Democratic advantage in the generic House ballot has been built largely on a solid lead among independents. As recently as mid-October, 47% of independent voters said they were voting for the Democratic candidate in their district, compared with 29% who favored the Republican. Currently, Democrats lead by 44%-33% among independent voters.

Notably, President Bush's political standing has improved in the final week before the election. Bush's job approval rating among registered voters has risen from 37% in early October, to 41% in the current survey. Mirroring the GOP's gains among independent voters, Bush's rating among this crucial group of swing voters now stands at 35%, its highest point this year.

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GALLUP

Democrats Lead Republicans in House Vote by Seven Points: November 06, 2006. Narrowed lead still appears large enough to give Democrats majority control of House, by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, Lydia Saad, and Joseph Carroll, GALLUP NEWS SERVICEPRINCETON, NJ –

The final USA Today/Gallup measure of Americans' voting intentions for Congress shows Democrats with a 51% to 44% lead over Republicans among likely voters. Although this margin has narrowed from previous USA Today/Gallup polls, it still suggests that Democrats have enough strength to gain a majority of House seats. Statistical models developed from previous midterm elections suggest that if the pattern of elections over the last decades continues this year, a national vote margin of seven points translates into the Democrats winning enough seats to give them a clear majority. The USA Today/Gallup estimate of voting preferences of likely voters nationwide is 51% voting for the Democratic candidate and 44% for the Republican candidate. This is slightly narrowed from the 54% to 41% lead enjoyed by the Democrats in the Oct. 20-22 poll, and considerably narrower than the large 59% to 36% Democratic lead in early October.

Bloomberg

Bloomberg.com: Japan: Democrats Have Narrower Lead in Election, Polls Find, By Nadine Elsibai

Nov. 5 (Bloomberg) -- The contest for control of Congress
has tightened in the days leading up to the Nov. 7 vote with the
Democrats' margin narrowing, two polls showed. Democrats hold a 51 percent to 45 percent edge among likely voters, down from a 14-point margin two weeks ago, according to an ABC News/Washington Post poll. A separate poll by the Pew
Research Center for the People & the Press showed a similar decrease in support for Democrats, who now have a 47 percent to 43 percent advantage over Republicans compared with 50 percent to 39 percent two weeks ago.

My Predictions

I believe the Democrats will win control of the House, but by a narrower margin than previously thought. The Republicans will maintain a razor-thin edge in the Senate.

If this is true, I would define this as a minor victory for Republicans. The Republicans, if they lose the house, have only themselves to blame, with overspending, a weakness on immigration, and too many cases of corruption causing them to lose power. The Democrats, if they don’t swamp the Republicans in this year of anti-Republican sentiment, have only themselves to blame, with no positive platform for the country, no solution for Iraq, and their “anything but Bush” and “anything but Republicans” stands on all the issues.

There seems to be no great passion in this election except negative passion. On the left, the passion is to “throw the bums out,” with a fierce anti-Bush feeling and anti-Republican sentiment centered around the war in Iraq. On the right, the passion is to avoid Nancy Pelosi as Speaker of the House with her raging liberal San Francisco values, and to avoid putting national security in the hands of a party weak on defense.

I am disappointed in Republicans this year. There is no reason they had to get to this point where their power is in jeopardy. They should have spent less, handled Iraq better, and stopped illegal immigration. I am disgusted with Democrats, though, with their demagoguery. The polls have narrowed significantly in the last few days. We’ll see if the momentum continues for Republicans and away from Democrats. It is exciting, and we’ll see what the people say.

P.S. If the elections are close, or if Republicans win or close the gap further, look for the “voter fraud” excuse to be trotted out by Democrats and their hordes of "gotcha" lawyers already in place. Democrats never lose elections anymore; they are stolen, of course.

Rock


(*Wikipedia is always my source unless indicated.)

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